Michael Herring A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert A Commentary COMMENT Apr 28, 2009

We've seen a big rally from the bottoms of liberation day in early April, almost 20% in the S&P. On the S&P, we're now in positive territory YTD. The TSX is up 3% YTD.

She gets that the worst-case scenario is no longer priced into the market with the 90-day pause on tariffs. But there's still a lot more to unfold. When she looks at the economy, the data coming out is not looking great. It's mixed, at best. Then there are other things like increasing geopolitical risk. 

No idea. We've got a slowing US economy, which is a major trading partner, and tariffs. After the talks between US and China, everyone saw that as a buying opportunity and the market's rallied ever since. You can see that clearly in the chart for the TSX. 

But when you look at slowing economy, quantities of debt, unemployment, and deteriorating credit metrics, this is probably a time to take some profits rather than adding extra exposure. The optimism isn't warranted at all.

The Trump presidency has been a chaos magnet, and what it's done is to reprice some sectors. There was a buying opportunity about 6 weeks ago. If you participated in that, you've been well rewarded. But it looks as though the market's ahead of itself.

If we don't get interest rate cuts, we're going to see more unemployment and problems with company balance sheets. There are problems out there, and the Chinese tariff deal hasn't changed that.

That's probably the $1M question. A tariff is effectively inflation. Could take 1-2 quarters to hit. Rising prices will put companies under pressure. We're seeing companies that were marginally profitable already start to cut employees. Some boards are making opportunistic cuts. CEOs are being replaced. 

Tariffs will be a catalyst for other changes to occur. It's providing cover for a lot of activity that's probably been needed for quite some time.

April Market Recap

The TSX Index was down -0.30% in the month of April, up 0.46% YTD and 14.40% over the past year. Canadian GDP was up 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 2.40% for the full year; in the USA the GDP was up 2.4% for the fourth quarter and 2.50% for the full year. Canadian inflation rate was 2.30% annually in April 2025 and the US annual rate was 2.40% in April 2025. 

The best performer of April was Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd (GLXY) whose stock price was up 44.5% on the month, down -12.3% year-to-date, and up 81.2% over the past year.

The second best performer of April was Andlauer Healthcare Group Inc (AND) whose stock price was up 37.2% on the month, up 26.8% year-to-date, and up 28.3% over the past year.

The third best performer of April was Kinaxis Inc (KXS) whose stock price was up 17.3% on the month, up 7.5% year-to-date, and up 27.0% over the past year.
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She says the S&P large-cap chart shows the start of a bullish cycle--unconfirmed. Confirmation will be the 13-week moving average crossing above the 26- and 40-week moving averages, which is asking a lot. The S&P needs to make 6,000, and 6,147 is the Ceiling of Uncertainty. A bullish indicator, though, is the MACD has made a bullish crossover. On the S&P equal-weighted index, she says the S&P is moving in the right direction, but the chart must break above its Ceiling Resistance from 7,333-7,0421. But the MACD line is bullish. Thirdly, the XLK is in the early days of a bullish cycle, but the chart must break the Ceiling of $230-237; we're in the middle of that range now. Also, the MACD shows a bullish crossover. However, treasury yields need to go lower, not higher; 4.8% would be a dangerous level.

Canadian inflation is down, partly because of the end of the carbon tax and low oil prices. What's driving the latter is ongoing global economic uncertainty due to Trump's tariffs. In Q1 oil demand was strong though that seems to be slowing down now. Couple that with increased output from OPEC+. If demand falls, what oil price will moderate US shale production? Natural gas: currently we're in a shoulder season, so volatile. However, there's been a meaningful increase in demand for LNG by the US (16% to 28% by 2030). LNG Canada should have its first export next month, which is positive and will shrink the Canadian discount in the nat gas price by nearly half. Power demand in the US will grow by 25%, so that is another driver. He expects nat gas to trade at $4-5 over the next year.

Canadian oil is fairly shielded from Trump's tariffs because tariffs would be massively inflationary for America. However, because of steel tariffs, it increases the cost of drilling for oil. American needs Canadian oil and natural gas.

It's actually quite healthy right here, because it's bounced back a good 20%. You'd think it might correct, but it's just consolidating, which is healthy. So they'll hang around here for a bit and then go for new highs.

In classic computing, programming is done with 0s and 1s. Quantum computing lets you do things with 0s, 1s, and a whole bunch of things in between that are called qubits. They allow the computer to run a lot faster and, therefore, to do higher computational things.

He's brought in a bullseye chart to help explain the ecosystem. The bullseye is the hardware, which provides the essential computational foundation needed for quantum calculations. Second circle is the software and algorithm development side -- translates hardware capabilities into actionable software solutions. Finally, you have the applications that deploy the software solutions to specific industries and sectors.

For example, with qubits you can do faster computations and more of them. A lot of medical experimentation is a series of tests and misses. If you can do this faster than you could before, you can shorten the timespan of finding the right computation to reach a medical solution. Another example would be supply chain logistics, and computing the most efficient route more quickly.